Israel and Hezbollah are on the brink of all-out war

Date:

At Haifa University, less than 50 kilometers from Israel's border with Lebanon, nothing is left to chance. The morning after a rocket hit a soccer field in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, killing 12 children and teenagers, university officials announced that all staff above the fifth floor of the 30-story building were to work from home. Fears are mounting that the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah is in the firing range.

"In the last war with Hezbollah in 2006, their weapons reached Haifa," university employee Esther Papara told the BBC: "This is a dangerous moment. Parents help the police and security guards to guard the kindergartens. I avoid crowds. We are not looking for war, but Hezbollah wants to destroy Israel and the Jewish people. Can we let them do that without defending ourselves?”

Cross-border fire between Israel and Lebanon has steadily increased since October 8, when Hezbollah fired rockets and grenades at Israeli sites in solidarity with Hamas' attack on Israel a day earlier. Both groups call for the destruction of the Israeli state.

Hezbollah frequently attacks northern Israel and the Golan Heights, Syrian territory captured by Israel during the 1967 war and annexed in 1981. Israel launched airstrikes and missiles into southern Lebanon, including a nighttime wave of attacks, apparently in response to Saturday's rocket fire.

Reciprocal attacks since October have killed 450 people in Lebanon – 100 of them civilians – while Israel says 23 civilians and 17 soldiers have been killed. Charka were relatively limited, suggesting that both sides wanted to avoid direct confrontation. But the question now is how far Israel will go in responding to Saturday's tragedy, the single largest loss of life in cross-border attacks since October.

Thousands of people took to the streets of the city to mourn the young victims, holding flowers and photographs around the small white coffins. Hezbollah says it did not fire the deadly rocket, but the Israeli government says that is a lie. Following the attack, Lebanese militants reportedly preemptively evacuated some key locations in the south of the country and in the eastern Bekaa Valley in anticipation of a major Israeli attack.

Israel's prime minister returned early from the US to chair a meeting of the security cabinet, which gathered as calls for a sharp response. Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that Hezbollah "will pay a heavier price than it has ever paid." Foreign Minister Israel Katz said Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah should "pay with his head," while far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich warned Israel was moving closer to full-scale war with Hezbollah.

But Israel knows that the cost of such a war with the Lebanese militant group could be catastrophic for both sides. Hezbollah is the most powerful non-state organization in the region, which has 150.000 rockets and missiles in its arsenal. It is Iran's most important ally in the Middle East, and an Israeli attack could draw Tehran into the conflict, which has warned Israel that any "new adventures" in Lebanon could lead to "unpredictable consequences."

And Israeli troops are still stretched out in Gaza. Opening another front while running out of ammo just might not be feasible. On the other hand, some 60.000 Israelis have been displaced from the border area with Lebanon over the past few months, many of them asking their government to neutralize the Hezbollah threat.

And Netanyahu, whose popularity at home is plummeting, is doing everything he can for his political survival. Critics say he is continuing the war in Gaza by constantly making tougher demands on Hamas for a ceasefire deal, knowing he could face early elections and the end of his career when fighting there stops.

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At Haifa University, less than 50 kilometers from Israel's border with Lebanon, nothing is left to chance. The morning after a rocket hit a soccer field in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, killing 12 children and teenagers, university officials announced that all staff above the fifth floor of the 30-story building were to work from home. Fears are mounting that the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah is in the firing range.

"In the last war with Hezbollah in 2006, their weapons reached Haifa," university employee Esther Papara told the BBC: "This is a dangerous moment. Parents help the police and security guards to guard the kindergartens. I avoid crowds. We are not looking for war, but Hezbollah wants to destroy Israel and the Jewish people. Can we let them do that without defending ourselves?”

Cross-border fire between Israel and Lebanon has steadily increased since October 8, when Hezbollah fired rockets and grenades at Israeli sites in solidarity with Hamas' attack on Israel a day earlier. Both groups call for the destruction of the Israeli state.

Hezbollah frequently attacks northern Israel and the Golan Heights, Syrian territory captured by Israel during the 1967 war and annexed in 1981. Israel launched airstrikes and missiles into southern Lebanon, including a nighttime wave of attacks, apparently in response to Saturday's rocket fire.

Reciprocal attacks since October have killed 450 people in Lebanon – 100 of them civilians – while Israel says 23 civilians and 17 soldiers have been killed. Charka were relatively limited, suggesting that both sides wanted to avoid direct confrontation. But the question now is how far Israel will go in responding to Saturday's tragedy, the single largest loss of life in cross-border attacks since October.

Thousands of people took to the streets of the city to mourn the young victims, holding flowers and photographs around the small white coffins. Hezbollah says it did not fire the deadly rocket, but the Israeli government says that is a lie. Following the attack, Lebanese militants reportedly preemptively evacuated some key locations in the south of the country and in the eastern Bekaa Valley in anticipation of a major Israeli attack.

Israel's prime minister returned early from the US to chair a meeting of the security cabinet, which gathered as calls for a sharp response. Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that Hezbollah "will pay a heavier price than it has ever paid." Foreign Minister Israel Katz said Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah should "pay with his head," while far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich warned Israel was moving closer to full-scale war with Hezbollah.

But Israel knows that the cost of such a war with the Lebanese militant group could be catastrophic for both sides. Hezbollah is the most powerful non-state organization in the region, which has 150.000 rockets and missiles in its arsenal. It is Iran's most important ally in the Middle East, and an Israeli attack could draw Tehran into the conflict, which has warned Israel that any "new adventures" in Lebanon could lead to "unpredictable consequences."

And Israeli troops are still stretched out in Gaza. Opening another front while running out of ammo just might not be feasible. On the other hand, some 60.000 Israelis have been displaced from the border area with Lebanon over the past few months, many of them asking their government to neutralize the Hezbollah threat.

And Netanyahu, whose popularity at home is plummeting, is doing everything he can for his political survival. Critics say he is continuing the war in Gaza by constantly making tougher demands on Hamas for a ceasefire deal, knowing he could face early elections and the end of his career when fighting there stops.

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