INDICATIONS AND FEARS OF NEW BULGARIAN PROVOCATIONS ON THE BIRTHDAY OF THE MACEDONIAN REVOLUTIONARY
The series of events in the past dozen days with incidents and open provocations by Bulgarian politicians, which again increased the tension in the relations with Bulgaria, and all this with implications aimed at the European integration processes of Macedonia, opened the dilemma of a greater security risk and the possibility of possibly new provocations. The reason for such fears was certainly the call and the announcement by the Bulgarian foundation "Macedonia" for a visit of "Bulgarian citizens, political parties and associations" to the grave of the Macedonian revolutionary Gotse Delchev in Skopje on the day of his birth, February 4, accompanied even by a threat that "whoever raises a hand to a Bulgarian will be left without it." All this, to say the least, had a serious provoking effect in Macedonian society. To a large extent, this call, as well as the provocative parade of Bulgarian politicians in Skopje, on January 14, when they raised irredentist-denying slogans for territorial claims with messages of the type "Macedonia is Bulgarian", further increases the suspicions that again someone from Bulgaria deliberately wants to stage an incident, and then blame Macedonia for it.
In addition, the provocations sent by the Bulgarian side, in the Macedonian public, inspired initiatives for civil self-organization, for guarding the grave of Delchev in the Skopje "Sveti Spas" church on the days when the buses with "tourists" are expected to visit, organized by the foundation from Bulgaria . The announcements from both sides about a visit from Bulgaria, with open provocative intentions, but also the "guarding" of Delchev's grave as a civic initiative from Macedonia, foreshadow situations with an increased opposing charge of emotions, which may go in an unwanted direction and possible escalation. It is precisely such possible situations that raise the question of what potential they carry with them for the commemoration of the day of the birth of the ideologist of an independent and independent Macedonian state, Gotse Delchev, to turn into a security risk and threat for Macedonia. Experts give their opinion on all these conditions.
- Of course, the announcement of an organized visit from Bulgaria to the grave of Gotse Delchev on February 4 is a security risk for Macedonia and a challenge for the country's institutions, after all the public threats and provocations from the organizer of the event, but also after all the provocative incidents directed by the Bulgarian nationalist politicians-provocateurs. The real prevention of any security escalation, which would be on the scale of disturbing public order and peace, would be to agree on a political-bilateral level that there will be no visit with provocative intentions from Bulgaria, nor to organize guarding of the grave of Gotse Delchev from Macedonian citizens. The tendency is clear, although no one wants to say it out loud, that such incidents are deliberately provoked in Macedonia, with the knowledge of the Bulgarian political top, in order to maintain and escalate the tensions between Macedonia and Bulgaria.
Any security breach, even at the level of public order and peace, may as a consequence imply an increased political crisis in Macedonia, especially on the internal level, by delaying the Macedonian European integration process. Bulgaria will not be harmed in that matter. Therefore, the potential for security risk needs to be addressed at the political level between the two countries, ie. to ask the official policy of Bulgaria to influence these persons and organizations, whose activity is visibly aimed at provoking tensions in Macedonian-Bulgarian bilateral relations - says Oliver Andonov, university professor at the military academy "Mihajlo Apostolski" in Skopje.
On the other hand, reliance on the thesis that there is no risk of a security threat to Macedonia in the provocative actions of Bulgarian politicians and "civil" activists, due to the fact that both countries are members of NATO, is violated by the undisguised irredentist statements with territorial claims of the Bulgarian MP Kostadinov that "Macedonia is a (second) Bulgarian country, and that Macedonians are Bulgarians". Such a provocation was expressed twice in the middle of Skopje, and the parliamentary group of his party displayed a banner with such a slogan in the Bulgarian assembly.
- The dates marked as days to honor the Macedonian revolutionary Gotse Delchev (February 4, the day of birth, and May 4, the day of death) have somehow turned into a chronic security challenge for the interstate relations of Macedonia and Bulgaria. The latest developments and incidents in which a "Bulgarian omen" is recognized represent a hybrid security threat for Macedonia, in which propaganda mounted political means are used, on the border between what is allowed and what is not allowed. The right of association is certainly a permissible means, but the negation of the political independence of a state, the denial of its territorial integrity, as well as the national identity of the largest part of the population of that state, is certainly in the realm of impermissible means. Threatening the security of the state is not only explicit violence and armed aggression.
Violence usually begins with words and provocations. In the interest of some kind of political balancing of relations with Bulgaria, seen through the prism of our European integration, the political elites in Macedonia are more inclined to ignore this moment of security threat in the provocations, now intensified by celebrating the birth of Gotse Delchev. But the Macedonian state leadership has the responsibility to prevent this security risk situation, as well as the intelligence-subversive activity of our neighbor. Indeed, Gotse Delchev, as a historical character with civilizational value, does not deserve to be abused as a security threat, but the state has the right and responsibility to prevent such a danger. With the fact that Delchev is a civilizational value, greater than anything else, Macedonia must not prohibit its veneration by foreign citizens as well. But if the spirit of honor goes into the direction of provocation for incidents, it should be answered with appropriate political rhetoric and reaction of the institutions - says professor Frosina Remenski from the Faculty of Security in Skopje.
COINCIDENCE OR NOT
On the same day, sessions of the Security Council in Macedonia, Albania and Serbia
Yesterday afternoon (January 23), the Security Council held its first session of the year. Until the closing of today's edition of the newspaper, the session of the Security Council was not finished, so there were no official statements about the conclusions and topics that were discussed. In the announcement of the session, general criteria were stated, that the "security situation in Macedonia and in the Euro-Atlantic Region" will be discussed.
The media's assumptions about the topics for consideration by the Security Council were focused on the situations faced by Macedonia, in the context of disturbed relations with Bulgaria and preparations for the procedure in the Parliament for adopting constitutional amendments. It was also assumed that the meeting could also discuss the tensions in the north of Kosovo. Indicative of security in the regional context is that almost at the same time as in Macedonia, a session of the National Security Council was held in Albania, which was led by President Bajram Begaj, and a session was held in Belgrade by the Serbian government, which was also attended by President Aleksandar Vucic.
